The challenge of preventing climate change is formidable but not insurmountable. To avoid a dangerous level of climate change, defined by the European Union (EU) as an increase in the global mean surface temperature of 2°C or more above pre-industrial levels, developed countries will be required to stabilise and then cut their current greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 60 and 80 percent by 2050. Developing countries will have to stabilise their emissions while finding new, low carbon pathways to development. Timing is also critical: the longer action is delayed the steeper the reduction track will become and the harder climate change will be to manage.

Put simply, there are three ways to prevent climate change:

1. Reduce emissions through efficiency – using less
2. Reduce emissions through substitution – using something else which is less harmful
3. Reduce emissions through sequestration – using something to capture and store emissions

However, the approaches we need to implement these measures from the level of the household to that of the nation state are more complex.

Policy mix and innovation

A determined and multi-dimensional policy effort will be required to stay within the boundaries of this target. There are no silver bullets. Just as a portfolio of technology options will be required in the areas of renewable energy, power transmission/control systems, alternative fuels and carbon capture/storage, so too will flexible and complementary policy options be required to gain the greatest leverage from energy use. This will mean encouraging greater energy efficiency where voluntary/regulatory actions can make an impact; implementing price mechanisms where energy sources can be substituted or switched; and providing investment throughout the innovation chain to ensure that the technology that emerges from research and development becomes commercially viable.

Leadership and cooperation

Visionary leadership and the ability to work cooperatively and cohesively on the international stage will underpin the efforts of individual nations. Resolving existing political tensions by acknowledging and accommodating the right for economic development will be at the cornerstone of a viable global policy framework. This means steeper reductions for developed countries. Adjustable emissions allocations, technology transfer and integrated instruments will all be essential for overcoming the significant political, social and behavioural barriers to implementing effective multilateral policy.

Often countries and regions and will face their own unique challenges – as the means to reduce emissions will have to work in with the restructuring of the local industrial profiles and port folio of natural resources.

Mass action

Avoiding the conflict between reducing emissions and compromising lifestyles is essential for building public support for mitigation. To achieve this, climate change policy needs to be framed in terms of an investment rather than a cost. Clear communications that explain the economic and environmental prudence of rapidly reducing emissions needs to be supported by an understanding that necessity can also bring progress and prosperity. The message that grave and potentially irreversible climate impacts are likely to be the result of inactivity should be delivered hand-in-hand with a transformational vision of increased employment, less pollution, better health, energy security, stronger communities and sustainable development.

The role of conservation

The forests of the world are vital in mitigating climate change. Change of land use of which deforestation is the most eminent, account for roughly 20% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. Forests therefore play an important role to keep the global average temperature rise below the UNFCCC target of 2 degrees Celsius.

In the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, forest-related activities were part of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), but this only referred to afforestation and reforestation projects. The rules for the CDM forestry project are extremely complex and have not led to the expected response. For the next commitment period, a mechanism for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) is being discussed. To ensure that REDD is successful it will need to be simple, easy to implement and credible. However, the design of such a system is challenging due to a number of factors from technical skills, to enabling policy framework, through to clarity over land use rights and equitable tenure.